Trade-Off Between Rice Cultivation Land and Forest Area in Indonesia: An Empirical Analysis

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the trade-off relationship between rice field area and forest area in Indonesia. The phenomenon of rice field expansion is often associated with reduced forest cover due to land conversion, so it is important to understand the extent of the relationship empirically. The data used is panel data from 34 provinces in Indonesia for the period 2018–2023 sourced from the Statistics Indonesia (BPS). The variables analyzed include rice field area as the independent variable, forest area as the dependent variable, and rice production and productivity as control variables. The analytical method used is Panel Least Squares (PLS). Furthermore, to test the robustness and consistency of the estimation results, this study applies Robust Least Squares (ROBUSTLS) as a robustness test method. The results of the Fixed Effects Model (FEM) indicate that increases in rice field area and improvements in rice productivity do not significantly affect forest area within provinces over time. However, the ROBUSTLS estimation demonstrates significant cross-sectional associations that reflect structural differences between provinces rather than short-term temporal dynamics. These findings imply that the trade-off between rice cultivation and forest conservation in Indonesia is driven more by long-term historical and institutional factors than by recent agricultural changes.